As you know I am still holding the long position and tired of the current range. Now I am waiting just the bounce, but not the trend reverse. Despite this fact I suppose that the bear market is almost ended an I am not waiting the huge crash from the current prices.
As you can see on the chart the Bitcoin price now is next to the COVID-19 trend line. Such strong levels have never been broken without the bounce to the upside. The weekly Fibonacci shows us that BTC reached the Zone 27 and bounced off it on the extreme volume. Also the weekly candle closed almost as the bullish hammer which increases the bounce probability.
If we take a look at the volume profile the $38k is the strongest level of resistance. Taking into account the huge amount of shorts of the retail traders and ATH on the institutional’s long positions we can conclude that the bounce could be stronger than I supposed earlier. The fear & greed index equals 8! This is the lowest value in the history. It means that the capitulation was on the market at the $26k because even on the local growth the most of traders are scared.
Why I am not waiting for the huge crash? Zone 27 Fibonacci on the weekly timeframe is the strongest resistance where whales accumulate long positions. After the bounce to the $38k I suppose that the BTC will dump to zone 27 again ($24-26k) and after accumulation we will see at least Fibonacci golden pocket level ($50k).