Last two short trades were losing and now it’s time to make some predictions if the Bitcoin break through the ascending triangle or get a rejection and dump hardly. Now we have the short signal at the 1h and potential short at 4h timeframe. But let’s take a look at the global price targets on the 1D.
First of all I want to pay attention to the similarities in current ascending triangle and the falling wedge which was formed in summer 2021. There was the bullish divergence on BTC which led to the price growth. Now we can see almost the same situation, but reversed. If in 2021 the price tested the $30k multiple times but finally reversed from this level, now the price is testing $45k multiple times and we can see the potential bearish divergence with MACD on the 1D. Here is the only 1 difference. There were a lot of short positions next to $30k, now the are a lot of short positions next to resistance level, as a result I suppose that we have to see at least the false breakout of $45k.
In case of the true $45-46k breakout (0.38 Fibonacci) we can see the $49-53k as the maximum target, because the Fibonacci golden pocket is here. In both cases: breakout and rejection we will see 26k (Zone 27 Fibonacci) with 90% probability. This level could be the bear market bottom or at least huge bounce area. But now let’s see the current price action and search for the short entry point.