There are not too many articles where I write such heading, but today is really the appropriate time. To be honest I waited this signal to make sure that the bear market is over, but I don’t think that it’ over, but this signal significantly increases the bullish bounce probability. Today I will show you 2 scenarios how will the bear market end in my opinion. Let’s go!
Scenario 1: the previous cycle’s replication
Let’s take a look at the Bitcoin chart. I added the 365 days(or 1 year SMA) to it. It is the best MA which is respected by the price every time and helps to understand the market cycle’s stage. In 2018 during the bear market the price found support at this SMA, bounced off it and finally broke it to the downside. After that we saw the retest and 60% dump below this line. The point of the bear market bottom also coincides with the enter to the RSI oversold area below 30. There was the accumulation on this bottom and when the RSI broke to the upside the trendline the new bull market began.
What we can see in the current situation. The SMA breakdown we have already seen, logically now we have to see -60% crash to the level of $17k. But I don’t think that we will see such lower prices, but this analysis tells us that the bear market is not finished yet. Moreover, the RSI is still above 30, which means that we have to see another one crash.
Scenario 2: the bottom at zone 27 Fibonacci
If we take a look at the BTC chart below, we can see that the price formed the weekly Fibonacci levels, was rejected from 0.38 level and drop exactly to zone 27. Moreover we are going to see the confirmation of the true bullish divergence with the MACD on the 1W timeframe if we will see the increasing MACD histogram column at the weekly candle close. Last time we saw the bearish divergence exactly at the bear market start. This is the extremely strong bullish signal. Now I don’t think that we started the bull market form here. I can see 2 possible scenarios. If we see the growth from current prices to $35-36k it means for me that another one crash to $22k will be in 1-2 months. If the sideways next to zone 27 continues it means that Bitcoin is forming the accumulation and the bear market will end approximately at the same price.