Bitcoin – negative scenario is playing out!

30.06.2022 3:51 pm

Hello, everyone!

I should trust my knowledges more than I do, because the scenario, which I pointed out 4 days ago is playing out right now. I was true about the new wave counting and the market now is painting the local wave 5. Thus, today I decreased the amount of Bitcoin in my portfolio from 40% to 20%, the Bitcoins which I bought at $18500 I sold at $20k this morning just before the dump. Hence, my average buy price is $20500.

Local Elliott wave counting

Let’s take a look at the BTCUSDT chart of the KuCoin exchange. My mistake was the wave counting in wave 3. The drop to $17500 was the wave iv inside wave 3. Thus, the wave 4 is represented as the a-b-c correction and now it looks like wave 5 is going to break the previous low. This wave 4 was not even broken the lower band of the William Alligator. After touching it we saw the rejection. Wave 5 has two potential targets: 0.38 Fibonacci extension ($16600) and 0.618 Fibonacci extension ($13400). We have to watch carefully when the price will approach to these levels. The Awesome oscillator have to form the divergence, we can see that potentially it could be. I am going to enhance my position only at these levels.

Global analysis

Look at the picture below. The price now is next to monthly Bollinger’s lower band. It means that we have to be in crypto with 15-30% of the deposit. The bounce is going to happen from this level. I expect the long in terms of time bear market, like we can see on the picture. I expect the pump to the $30k (midline) next 3-4 months. The scenario on the chart now is my basic view.

Fig1. Bitcoin 1M Bollinger bands

Good luck!

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