Yesterday I told you that I’m waiting for the correction because of too much resistance at $32k and the strongest bearish divergence on the 1h timeframe. I supposed the the correction is going to end at the 0.38 Fibonacci level but we saw lower prices. Despite of this fact I am still in long position because I think that the growth is not finished yet.
Bitcoin local analysis
On the 4h timeframe we can see that the price found support exactly at the 0.61 Fibonacci level. This is the last point of support. If we will see the breakdown, the local uptrend is broken. But now the large buying volume stopped the price dump and now there is a recovery phase. There is also one bearish sign. The demand zone was broken to the downside and turned into the supply zone again. Now I want to see the BTC breakout of this supply zone above the $30800 to confirm my bullish forecast. This dump was caused by the SPX dump yesterday because of negative FUD from the US government. Moreover, the bitcoin now is much weaker than traditional markets. It dumps more when SPX dumps and pumps less than usual overwise.
Bitcoin global analysis
Today I wanna show you the Bitcoin analysis on the 1D timeframe using the Trading Chaos and connect it with the local picture. Let’s take a look at the chart below. On the last downside impulse we can notice the 5-wave Elliott structure. Looking at the awesome oscillator we can interpret that now Bitcoin finished wave 3 and is forming wave 4. The wave 3 has the feature – the lower AO values. The price pushed up to the alligator’s lines, but got a rejection. In the wave 4 the price usually fluctuates around the alligator because this wave is the longest in terms of time. My overall prediction is the sideways continuation as the wave 4. The minimal wave 4 completion condition is the positive awesome oscillator(in our bearish case). It is still in negative territory, thus the correction is not over an we can wait for another push up above the $32k. If we will use my last analysis and the wave 4 will end at $34-35k, using the Fibonacci extension we can define the wave 5 bottom – it is next to $23k as I predicted using other trading tools. This value will be the bear market bottom in my interpretation.