My yesterday analysis now is playing out, I was correct using the Wyckoff method. I took a fancy to the Wyckoff approach and today found the unbelievable global scenario for the Bitcoin, which don’t allows me to sell at least 20% of my deposit in Bitcoins.
Global Wyckoff analysis
Let’s take a look at the BTCUSDT chart of the MEXC exchange. Most of traders interpret the 1.5 years of consolidation between the levels of $30k and $60k as the huge double top and extremely bearish formation. But let’s imagine that this is the huge accumulation. We can see all Wyckoff events from preliminary stop (PS) to Upthrust. Now I suppose that BTC is forming the spring – the false breakdown below the trading range. I shared the screenshot from the book again with the accumulation represented as the widening formation on the top. One think which concerns me is the relatively high volume at the potential spring. The growing volume next to the lower band of the range could be also the sign of the weakness and potential true breakdown. In this case we can interpret the current formation as the huge distribution with the targets next to $15k. I think nobody wants to see this scenario.
If we will use the Wyckoff approach in conjunction with other tools, we can notice that the true divergence with the MACD is confirmed on the 1W timeframe – super bullish sign. If we take a look at the chart below, we can see that institutional investors on the Bitfinex exchange opened the highest open interest in the long positions and cut their hedging shorts at the same time. I don’t think that they are waiting for $15k.
If you missed my entry point
I don’t recommend you to buy at the local highs if you missed the long trade and feeling FOMO right now. The basic principle of buying the dip on the uptrend is dividing the desired volume into three parts on the Fibonacci levels which you can see on the chart below.
Overall I understand that the global scenario is insane, but I found evidences that it could be true. You know I bought Bitcoin at $29k thus I am in profit and feel comfortable. If BTC will show me bearish signs I close the position to catch the real bottom.