When the new Altseason?

15.12.2021 8:36 pm

Hello, everyone!

I told you here that the Bitcoin is probably following the Accumulation pattern. Based on this theory I want to suppose that before the change in the trend direction we need to see the true divergence with MACD – the strongest TA signal, which gave the short signal on $65000.

The price on the daily chart now shows the decreasing bearish momentum, but not the true divergence. We need to see the rally to the 20MA and the final drop lower than $45000 to form the true divergence. On the Accumulation formation it usually coincides with the Spring event. After that the trend reverse is anticipated.

There was the first condition of the altseason. The second one is connected with the TOTAL3 chart – altcoins marketcap excluding BTC and ETH. I think that the shitcoins are the most interesting now, because demonstrated the huge correction. On the TOTAL3 we can see the Broadening Falling Wedge – bullish formation, but first of all we need to see the local Resistance breakout. The MACD divergence have already formed here on the 12H timeframe, it means that the altcoins is going to outperform the Bitcoin in the nearest future.

Figure 1. TOTAL 3 chart.

If we take a look at the BTC dominance chart there are 2 possible scenarios. The positive scenario is associated with our analysis above. In this case the BTC dominance will fall below 40%. If we will se the increase to the resistance line, during current Accumulation altcoins will drop even lower.

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