Now the market is in the extreme uncertainty in my opinion, I cannot make a decision about the highest probability scenario because on the one hand Bitcoin is next to support and showing the long signals, on the other hand it shows extreme weakness and I suppose that the current range is the redistribution.
On the 1D timeframe BTCUSDT chart we can see that the price is staying inside the central pivot range for August month, and above the central pivot. This is the bullish sign which give us a sign that the August finally can be bullish for crypto markets. The potential target is $26k = R1 level for August. Moreover the price is next to trendline 2, which have to be the strong support.
But on the other hand lets take a look at the candles on every local top. This candles means lack of demand and shows us the weakness of the market. Moreover the price now is at the support but we can not see the bullish reaction. It means that the buyers are not interested in the current prices. During this range the volume increases, it is the main sign of the redistribution instead of accumulation. I have 12% of deposit in crypto now for the case of the growth to $28k, but my main scenario is still the drop below $17k.