I think most of traders were surprised with the Bitcoin pump which we saw yesterday. Today the price continue holding the same level motivating to open long trades. I gave you the thought about this pump the day before it, but I also was surprised how rapidly the price climbed to the upside. Today we will consider the local picture for BTC and if my today’s forecast plays out we discuss the influence on global picture.
Let’s consider 1h timeframe. First of all I want you to bring your attention to the pump’s starting point. We saw the rapid dump before and slowing the downtrend after that. The price set the lower lows with the decceleration, forming the divergence with the Relative Strength Index(RSI). It caused the pump.
I told you multiple times that the first wave in the final bear market dump finished at $18500. Now the price, obviously forming the corrective wave 2. It could be ended now because wave 2 is represented as the ABC zigzag. Wave C usually have the 5 waves inside. It is not the obligatory to count all these waves. All what we need is to see the divergence with any oscillator – it means that the wave 3 and 5 have been already formed. We can see now the super strong bearish divergence.
Moreover the Bitcoin price reached the two key levels – 0.5 Fibonacci retracement from wave 1 and central pivot for September. About central pivots – I don’t know how, but it works with the sniper accuracy as a leading indicator.
Now it’s too difficult to predict will the BTC break down the $18500 low next week, but now I expect the test of the low at $18500-19000 at least.
Best regards, Ivan