Today I found the scary evidence which changed my opinion about the Bitcoin market. You know that I failed multiple times trying to catch the bounce during the bear market, but overall I was bearish. I will issue an article about my huge mistake in trading, why I failed despite the correct entry points finding. But today I wanna talk about the bear market.
What you answer me if I tell you that we have not even see the true bear market? Look at the full history of the Bitcoin. It was always in the uptrend during all the time according to my methodology. How I define the trend direction? I use the fractals, when the candle closes above the previous up fractal it means that the uptrend continue. The trend reverses when the candle closes below the lowest down fractal between the last two up fractals. According the this methodology the global uptrend on the 1M timeframe was finished in June 2022. It does not means that the Bitcoin is in downtrend, but it definitely not in the uptrend anymore. It could be sideways. Hence, the current bear market differs from all previous bear markets, which were not the true bear markets at all, just corrections. This time we can see more severe bear market which will surprise everybody.
Look at the monthly RSI. It shows us the double bearish divergence. It could be the sign of the really strong correction which we have never seen. Look at the 200 week MA also, the price have never closed below it on the 1M timeframe, but it did.
Looking at all this factors you can think that I am super bearish, but I believe that Bitcoin will break it’s ATH finally, but I don’t want to stuck into the market with the huge loss for a long time. Now I am still believe that local significant bounce in the priority, but I am going to close all my positions at this bounce.
When the market was at the ATH I wanted to wait the significant correction and invest money in BTC and some altcoins, but now I changed my opinion, I don’t want to be an investor. I wanna be the tradevestor. I am going to catch all significant movements and don’t think about the global trend.
I hope this idea was useful for you. My last losing trades inspired me to learn much more about the different trading approaches. I think will return back as a more successful trader.