I told you many times that we are in the last wave 5 of the bearish cycle, but today I read again the Trading chaos methodology and need to adjust my scenario. The bottom which I predicted will be the local, not global.
We have to use 100-140 bars for the Elliott cycle counting. When I anticipated bottom at $16k this factor was ok – I counted 100 bars, but I did not take into account the volume and Awesome oscillator. Obviosly, fot this Elliott wave cycle we should use the 3D timeframe and we can clearly see that the volume is rising. Volume in wave 5 cannot be higher than in wave 3, thus it is the wave 5 inside wave 3 in my new interpretation. We have not even seen the Awesome oscillator zero-line crossover. It means that we have not still seen the global wave 4.
As a result I am waiting for the wave 5 finish inside wave 3, execute insane long trade if the market give me this opportunity. I plan to take the bounce in global wave 4. The maximum level for this bounce is $33k, but we will not see this price level I suppose till the end of the bear market. Only after that the last wave 5 is going to happen. We can see $10k per Bitcoin as the bottom, but firstly traders will believe that the bull market did start.
Best regards, Ivan