Last time I issued the analysis when the Bitcoin price was next to $29k. Most of people thought that I am crazy when predicted the pump instead of dump to $20k. I told you many times that it’s too difficult for the market to drop on the extreme fear and you should not wait for the crash. Well, the price hit $32k and we have the question. Where to take profit and where to buy if you did not catch the bottom. Let’s go!
Bitcoin in the local picture
First of all let’s discuss the BTC price action in the local 4h timeframe on the MEXC exchange. Here we can see that the price reached exactly the central pivot range level and the first sells started. I don’t think that this bullish bounce ended right here. I suppose that the Bitcoin is going to reach the 0.38 Fibonacci retracement level of the last downside impulse and continue it’s upward movement. Such bounce is needed for the market because it will create the bull trap. The strong bearish signal in this case would be the double bearish divergence with the MACD histogram, created next to strong supply zone ($35k). As you can notice, the -0.618 Fibonacci extension level – the final target is also located right here.
Bitcoin: global picture
Let’s take a look at the chart below. On the 1D timeframe the BTC hit exactly 0.38 Fibonacci retracement level of the last downside impulse. Moreover it creates the gravestone doji candlestick pattern. That’s why I closed 60% of whole long position. I don’t like this bearish sign and want to preserve my profit. The maximal correction level is 0.618 – again $35k. In the best case we will see this strongest level. Globally I still expect another one downside impulse to $22k approximately. This price movement will create the true strong bullish divergence with the MACD histogram and line, which can be the point of the new bull cycle start.
SPX: high correlation with BTC
S&P500 is the leading indicator for the Bitcoin. It also reached the 0.38 Fibonacci level. The maximal target again is 0.618 which fully corresponds with the global Bitcoin analysis. The deep dive to -0.618, equals $3300 is anticipated by me as the final stage of the bear market.
How Ethereum will cause Bitcoin pump?
Looking at the chart below we can see that ETH formed the true bullish divergence with the MACD. This is the sign which I am waiting for the Bitcoin, but for the ETH such sign is not so strong. I interpret this sigh that it will grow to 0.38 Fibonacci level ($2400) and this grow is going to be supported by the Bitcoin grow to $35k. That’s why I closed only 60% of my position. In overall the market is still in the extreme fear (index =17). It is not enough to see the huge crash right now.